Our TSMC call: capex rises to $56–60B

Our proprietary read on TSMC before the print + our ASML grade

Pre-Call: ASML Q2 2026

Our proprietary read on ASML before the print

The Chokepoint #10: Analog Chips

The AI shortage is spreading to chips designed forty years ago, made in fabs nobody builds anymore.

Research: No Rack Without Taiwan

The chips, advanced packaging, substrates, cooling, and racks all run through one island. Plus 7 growing names that ride it

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

The 2nm bottleneck is somewhere else. One etch step, three suppliers.

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Three companies make the world's big gas turbines. Two blade manufacturers decide how fast they can build them.

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

A live test of Tessara’s constraint model for the AI buildout

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

The AI fiber shortage is a glass-rod shortage and you can't make the rods on a GPU schedule.

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Why AI capacity is not the same as GPU shipments - 8 layers between wafer and live cluster.

The Chokepoint #6: Photonics Testing

AI's optical future depends on a test step only one company can run at scale

Primer: The Memory Wall

Why memory defines what AI can do. A field guide to the four-tier hierarchy & the three companies that own it

The Chokepoint #5: Power Transformers

America's AI grid runs through one Pennsylvania steel mill

The Chokepoint #4: ABF Substrates

No high-end processor ships without a film made by Ajinomoto.

Thesis: CPUs, That Other Chip Shortage

Agentic AI is pulling the CPU back to the center of the data center and the supply chain isn't ready.

The Chokepoint #3: Power Semis

Power semiconductors are the new chokepoint.

The Chokepoint #2: Photonics

Where the rent flows when light becomes the chokepoint

The Earnings Print: Sunday Roundup

Construction risk on a data center is becoming investment-grade on Day 1

The Chokepoint #1: Power

The rent is migrating from the fab to the substation.

Thesis: The memory trade is not done

HBM Stays Scarce. The 2026-2027 memory supply is already spoken for

The biggest AI infrastructure earnings week of 2026

Apr 28 to May 1, 2026 · Tessara earnings preview

SK Hynix's exceptional Q1 2026 & what it means

AWS just became Anthropic's infrastructure floor

Google, Marvell, and the New Inference Stack

OpenAI expands its Cerebras commitment - now $20B