I share my personal, unfiltered thoughts on Crypto, AI, NFTs, and Tech.
Oct 1, 2026
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2 min read
Our forecast scorecard and the economics behind the next quarter.
Sep 29, 2026
Our model points to $56.16B. Here is the assumption that could break it.
The Chokepoint
Sep 3, 2026
6 min read
AI boards are getting thicker, denser and harder to drill. The tiny tools making the holes are wearing out faster.
Aug 28, 2026
AI needs power faster than the grid can deliver it. Fuel cells are becoming the workaround.
Aug 20, 2026
7 min read
MLCC cost per rack is up 182% into VR200. The rack itself only doubled.
Earnings
Aug 3, 2026
3 min read
Here is what we missed.
Jul 28, 2026
Tessara's numbers, assumptions and probability range
Jul 27, 2026
1 min read
What will actually matter on the call
Jul 22, 2026
4 min read
Both report today. Our frame on each, and the calls we’ve put on the record before the prints.
Jul 16, 2026
Our proprietary read on TSMC before the print + our ASML grade
Jul 14, 2026
Our proprietary read on ASML before the print
Jul 8, 2026
The AI shortage is spreading to chips designed forty years ago, made in fabs nobody builds anymore.
Research
Jul 3, 2026
16 min read
The chips, advanced packaging, substrates, cooling, and racks all run through one island. Plus 7 growing names that ride it
Jul 1, 2026
The 2nm bottleneck is somewhere else. One etch step, three suppliers.
Jun 24, 2026
5 min read
Three companies make the world's big gas turbines. Two blade manufacturers decide how fast they can build them.
Jun 23, 2026
A live test of Tessara’s constraint model for the AI buildout
Jun 17, 2026
The AI fiber shortage is a glass-rod shortage and you can't make the rods on a GPU schedule.
Jun 15, 2026
9 min read
Why AI capacity is not the same as GPU shipments - 8 layers between wafer and live cluster.
Jun 10, 2026
AI's optical future depends on a test step only one company can run at scale
Jun 5, 2026
14 min read
Why memory defines what AI can do. A field guide to the four-tier hierarchy & the three companies that own it
Jun 3, 2026
America's AI grid runs through one Pennsylvania steel mill
May 27, 2026
No high-end processor ships without a film made by Ajinomoto.
May 25, 2026
12 min read
Agentic AI is pulling the CPU back to the center of the data center and the supply chain isn't ready.
May 19, 2026
Power semiconductors are the new chokepoint.
May 12, 2026
Where the rent flows when light becomes the chokepoint
