Tessara Research

We Watch What Breaks First

Independent research on the physical bottlenecks behind the AI buildout: compute, memory, power, and networking, mapped to the public companies exposed to each.

Free. No spam. 1-2 memos a week

Latest Research & Theses

Research

Jun 23, 2026

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

A live test of Tessara’s constraint model for the AI buildout

Teng Yan

Research

Jun 15, 2026

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Why AI capacity is not the same as GPU shipments - 8 layers between wafer and live cluster.

Teng Yan, +1

Research

Jun 5, 2026

Primer: The Memory Wall

Why memory defines what AI can do. A field guide to the four-tier hierarchy & the three companies that own it

Teng Yan, +1

Research

May 25, 2026

Thesis: CPUs, That Other Chip Shortage

Agentic AI is pulling the CPU back to the center of the data center and the supply chain isn't ready.

Teng Yan, +1

Research

May 3, 2026

Thesis: The memory trade is not done

HBM Stays Scarce. The 2026-2027 memory supply is already spoken for

Teng Yan

Research

Apr 28, 2026

The biggest AI infrastructure earnings week of 2026

Apr 28 to May 1, 2026 · Tessara earnings preview

Teng Yan

The Chokepoint: AI Supply Chain Constraints

The Chokepoint

Jul 1, 2026

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7 min read

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

The 2nm bottleneck is somewhere else. One etch step, three suppliers.

Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

Jun 24, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Three companies make the world's big gas turbines. Two blade manufacturers decide how fast they can build them.

Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

Jun 17, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

The AI fiber shortage is a glass-rod shortage and you can't make the rods on a GPU schedule.

Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

Jun 10, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #6: Photonics Testing

AI's optical future depends on a test step only one company can run at scale

Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

Jun 3, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #5: Power Transformers

America's AI grid runs through one Pennsylvania steel mill

Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

May 27, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #4: ABF Substrates

No high-end processor ships without a film made by Ajinomoto.

Teng Yan, +1

Tessara Terminal

The research terminal for the AI buildout.

The memos are a sliver of what we track. The terminal is the full picture: live regime instruments, conviction-scored theses, and company exposure maps for every constraint in the stack.

See what's tightening, who's exposed, and what Tessara called before the market caught up.

80+ Constraints Tracked

400+ Public Companies

90+ Data Sources

Daily Live Refresh

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