SK hynix leads the world in HBM. Yet Samsung reported a much larger increase in average DRAM selling prices during the recent memory shortage.
Across the three quarters we examined:
Samsung: Average DRAM prices rose to approximately 3.9x their starting level.
SK hynix: Just 2.6x to 2.9x over the same period.
Micron and Nanya landed somewhere between them.
These are blended selling prices, so the comparison reflects differences in product mix as well as pricing. It does not tell us which company has better economics.
But it exposes something important for investors.
The same DRAM shortage is producing very different pricing outcomes across memory manufacturers.
The price index doesn't tell the whole story
Part of the explanation is product mix.
HBM and conventional DRAM behave differently. HBM commands much higher prices, but supply is typically committed well ahead of delivery. A producer with more HBM can therefore report smaller increases in its blended selling price even as conventional DRAM prices surge.
That helps explain SK hynix.
But it raises a more interesting question about what happens next.
When memory prices rise, how quickly can each manufacturer actually charge the higher price?
Three recent disclosures caught our attention.
Micron has been signing multi-year customer agreements with pricing floors and ceilings. Yet its September earnings presentation also described new negotiations reflecting higher prevailing market prices.
Nanya reported a remarkable 49.3% jump in July revenue. Its explanation pointed directly to contracts expiring and new terms taking effect that month. How much came from pricing rather than shipments remains to be established.
Samsung, meanwhile, reported the strongest cumulative DRAM price increase among the big three despite discussing multi-year supply agreements.
These observations suggest that the length of a supply agreement may tell us surprisingly little about how quickly a manufacturer can reprice its products.
And that distinction could become increasingly important as the memory cycle progresses.
What does this mean for the memory stocks you own?
The conventional approach is to start with an industry DRAM price forecast and translate it into company earnings.
But an industry price index measures the size of the price shock. It doesn't tell you how much of that shock each manufacturer captures.
We went through the reported price changes, earnings calls, contract disclosures, and market data to understand why the outcomes differ.
Our full house read examines:
Samsung vs SK hynix: What explains the pricing divergence, and what does it reveal about their exposure to the cycle?
Micron: Could its long-term agreements limit further price upside, or are new negotiations resetting the economics?
Nanya: What does the extraordinary July revenue jump tell us about contract repricing?
What comes next: Which upcoming disclosures could confirm or overturn our interpretation?
The analysis includes the underlying source passages, our assessment of the evidence, and the specific indicators we're tracking.
Cheers,
Teng