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Dive into a collection of past posts and rediscover timeless content.
Micron beat. Next question: What lasts?

Oct 1, 2026

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2 min read

Micron beat. Next question: What lasts?

Our forecast scorecard and the economics behind the next quarter.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan
We put 80% on Micron beating the highest revenue estimate

Sep 29, 2026

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2 min read

We put 80% on Micron beating the highest revenue estimate

Our model points to $56.16B. Here is the assumption that could break it.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #13: PCB Drill Bits

Sep 3, 2026

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6 min read

The Chokepoint #13: PCB Drill Bits

AI boards are getting thicker, denser and harder to drill. The tiny tools making the holes are wearing out faster.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #12: Fuel Cells

Aug 28, 2026

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6 min read

The Chokepoint #12: Fuel Cells

AI needs power faster than the grid can deliver it. Fuel cells are becoming the workaround.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #11: Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor (MLCC)

Aug 20, 2026

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7 min read

The Chokepoint #11: Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor (MLCC)

MLCC cost per rack is up 182% into VR200. The rack itself only doubled.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Earnings

We were wrong about SK Hynix.

Aug 3, 2026

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3 min read

We were wrong about SK Hynix.

Here is what we missed.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Earnings

Our forecast on SK Hynix (2Q26)

Jul 28, 2026

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6 min read

Our forecast on SK Hynix (2Q26)

Tessara's numbers, assumptions and probability range

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Earnings

The Decoder for SK Hynix's Wednesday Print

Jul 27, 2026

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1 min read

The Decoder for SK Hynix's Wednesday Print

What will actually matter on the call

Teng Yan
Teng Yan
Alphabet capex & GE Vernova

Jul 22, 2026

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4 min read

Alphabet capex & GE Vernova

Both report today. Our frame on each, and the calls we’ve put on the record before the prints.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan
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Tessara

Independent research on the physical bottlenecks behind the AI buildout https://tessara.tech