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Dive into a collection of past posts and rediscover timeless content.

Earnings

Our TSMC call: capex rises to $56–60B

Jul 16, 2026

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2 min read

Our TSMC call: capex rises to $56–60B

Our proprietary read on TSMC before the print + our ASML grade

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Earnings

Pre-Call: ASML Q2 2026

Jul 14, 2026

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2 min read

Pre-Call: ASML Q2 2026

Our proprietary read on ASML before the print

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #10: Analog Chips

Jul 8, 2026

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6 min read

The Chokepoint #10: Analog Chips

The AI shortage is spreading to chips designed forty years ago, made in fabs nobody builds anymore.

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1

Research

Research: No Rack Without Taiwan

Jul 3, 2026

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16 min read

Research: No Rack Without Taiwan

The chips, advanced packaging, substrates, cooling, and racks all run through one island. Plus 7 growing names that ride it

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

Jul 1, 2026

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7 min read

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

The 2nm bottleneck is somewhere else. One etch step, three suppliers.

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Jun 24, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Three companies make the world's big gas turbines. Two blade manufacturers decide how fast they can build them.

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1

Research

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

Jun 23, 2026

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5 min read

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

A live test of Tessara’s constraint model for the AI buildout

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

Jun 17, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

The AI fiber shortage is a glass-rod shortage and you can't make the rods on a GPU schedule.

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1

Research

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Jun 15, 2026

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9 min read

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Why AI capacity is not the same as GPU shipments - 8 layers between wafer and live cluster.

Teng Yan
Arvind
Teng Yan, +1
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Tessara

Daily signals on the AI infrastructure supply chain. What's tightening, what's breaking, and who's exposed. By Chain of Thought