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Dive into a collection of past posts and rediscover timeless content.

Earnings

Our TSMC call: capex rises to $56–60B

Jul 16, 2026

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2 min read

Our TSMC call: capex rises to $56–60B

Our proprietary read on TSMC before the print + our ASML grade

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Earnings

Pre-Call: ASML Q2 2026

Jul 14, 2026

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2 min read

Pre-Call: ASML Q2 2026

Our proprietary read on ASML before the print

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #10: Analog Chips

Jul 8, 2026

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6 min read

The Chokepoint #10: Analog Chips

The AI shortage is spreading to chips designed forty years ago, made in fabs nobody builds anymore.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Research

Research: No Rack Without Taiwan

Jul 3, 2026

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16 min read

Research: No Rack Without Taiwan

The chips, advanced packaging, substrates, cooling, and racks all run through one island. Plus 7 growing names that ride it

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

Jul 1, 2026

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7 min read

The Chokepoint #9: Selective Etching

The 2nm bottleneck is somewhere else. One etch step, three suppliers.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Jun 24, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #8: Gas Turbines

Three companies make the world's big gas turbines. Two blade manufacturers decide how fast they can build them.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Research

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

Jun 23, 2026

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5 min read

Forecasting Micron from the Bottleneck

A live test of Tessara’s constraint model for the AI buildout

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

The Chokepoint

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

Jun 17, 2026

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5 min read

The Chokepoint #7: Optical Fibers

The AI fiber shortage is a glass-rod shortage and you can't make the rods on a GPU schedule.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan

Research

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Jun 15, 2026

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9 min read

Primer: The Compute Conversion Gap

Why AI capacity is not the same as GPU shipments - 8 layers between wafer and live cluster.

Teng Yan
Teng Yan
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Tessara

Independent research on the physical bottlenecks behind the AI buildout https://tessara.tech